If there’s anything the past two years have taught us it’s how lucky we are to call Central Oregon home, AND how hard it is to make predictions about the local real estate market. However, we can confidently say that if 2022 is anything like 2021, buckle up. The median home values and price per square foot will continue to rise, and people will continue to value living in our community. In this article we’ll look back at local market trends over the past year, and look to the experts for predictions on the 2022 Central Oregon Real Estate Market Predictions.
2021 Central Oregon Housing Market in Review
The Central Oregon market is strong, marked by low inventories, and upward trending median home prices. Last year was truly a phenomenal year to sell a home, and a competitive market to buy one. Prices increased rapidly and inventory couldn’t keep up with demand. The median home price in Bend rose to $675,000, representing 28.8%, in 2021. In Redmond the median home sale price for December 2021 was $467,000 – or a 24.5% increase. For Sunriver, home sale prices rose 57.2%, to $865,000. And, for Sisters, median home prices rose 40%, to $645,000. These rates are all well above the national average, of 19%.
Low mortgage rates, the ongoing pandemic, low inventory, sky-high building material costs, and an increase in first-time home buyers all contributed to the real estate market’s strength in 2021.
According to the National Association of Realtors, 34% of home sales were by first-time home buyers, and the average age for a first time buyer was 33 years of age, as more millennials reach home buying age, the demand for homes will continue to rise.
Work-From-Anywhere Fuels Growth in Central Oregon
The top two cited reasons for selling a home were:
The desire to move closer to friends and family, and
The current home was too small
If you’re working, learning, and everything-else-ing, then home space is at a premium. If they could, some families opted to find a new home to fit their new needs. This shouldn’t be a surprise, because as remote work increases, moves to smaller communities with excellent outdoor access, like Central Oregon, are bound to continue. It should be noted that we love it here, so of course we’re biased. Admittedly, we aren’t the economists who are going to declare that cities are dead, or that they’re thriving. But we will declare that we often hear from home buyers that there has been a tremendous amount of change in how they live and work. This change empowers some families to have a bit more freedom in where they call home.
2022 Bend and Central Oregon Predictions
This year brings along with it some of the familiar challenges of the pandemic. It also brings with it (we hope) a slow-but-steady paced change replacing the supersonic-speed changes that comprised the past two years.
Many real estate experts expect the low mortgage rates to push home sales in the beginning of the year, but then as mortgage rates increase home sales will reach a steadier, and less frenzied state. Some experts are expecting mortgage rates to reach 3.7% by the end of the year, in an effort to curb inflation.
They don’t agree on: How much median home prices will rise nationally. Some experts predict 3-5%, and others saying that it will stay steady but not rise, and even others predicting a 12-15% increase. The truth is, time will tell.
Changes in median home price will vary market by market. Which is why it’s vital to choose a team who knows your market, and your community inside and out.
What about the 2022 Central Oregon Real Estate Market Predictions?
Here’s what Bend Relo team lead, David Keyte predicts:
With stocks and real estate at all time highs, unemployment at historic lows, we have the fuel for continued real estate appreciation in 2022. Things we are watching to see how they impact prices are (1) inflation compared to mortgage rates, (2) wages and (3) unemployment rates. With Inflation at %7 and mortgage rates at %3.5, we still have massively negative Real Interest Rates which incentivizes people to buy assets and not hoard cash. The Fed has indicated willingness to raise rates %.75, but the question remains whether that will slow inflation, or inflation will continue to rise at a rate higher than interest rate increases.
Your Local Market Trends Resource
Stay up-to-date on the latest changes, and shifts with the Central Oregon market by reading our blog around the start of the month when our market report data goes live.
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